Monday, August 27, 2007

The Carbon Market

I've been working on various concepts for my Carbon Diet project. My running idea had been to let people build up lbs of CO2 savings and if they exceeded a certain amount, let them sell their extra pounds to the market. My assumption was that there were lots of people that are interested in reducing their carbon footprint, but too lazy to ride their bike to work. So I started looking around at the market price of carbon (really C02) offsets. I was surprised to find how cheap it was to become carbon neutral. Based on the following assumptions here are some estimates for going carbon neutral:
  • The average American responsible for about 20 metric tons of CO2 emissions annually
  • The current market rate for a metric ton of carbon offset ranges from about $5.50 - $13.00 USD.
Basically it will set you back about $110.00 - $260.00 a year to kick your CO2 habit. Yes, I realize most people would rather spend an extra few hundred on a new whatever, but compare this to buying a new Prius vs. a Corolla... yeah, 60 mpg will lower your gas bill, if you opted for the $10K you'd save buying a Corrolla instead and settled for 40 mpg, you could pay for your entire extended family, 2 guys from down the street, that neighbor with the Hummer and dentist to all go carbon neutral. Hmmm... what would happen if everyone started buying up carbon offsets like they were the new iPhone. Hmmm... what if Apples next killer app is the iCarbon... getting off track... How fast is this market growing? Will the price per metric ton really change that dramatically? Hmmm... how much is my bike ride to work worth? Let see:
  • We'll say the Subaru which is getting old in town only gets 22 mpg
  • Burning gas puts out about 22 lbs per gallon
  • That equals 1lb / mile
  • So my 10 mile round trip save about 10 lbs of emissions.
  • We'll take a rough market average price of $9.00 a metric ton
  • That equals about $0.00401 / mile
  • Which means my ride to work is worth slightly over 4 cents in equivalent carbon offset value.
I think I better rethink my original business model.

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